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Early warning system modeling for food security campaign in Bali, Indonesia

Dr.Ir. I Nyoman Gede Ustriyana, MM, I NYOMAN GEDE USTRIYANA (2012) Early warning system modeling for food security campaign in Bali, Indonesia. Agricultural Science Research Journal, 2. ISSN 2026-6073

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Abstract

Food stock sufficiency in the future is influenced by some factors related to the rice stock and demand, either individually or as a result of interaction within the factors. This study aims to formulate the early warning method of food security in Bali Province, as guidance for the local government to make any regulations. The method applied is dynamic system, using Powersim software. The dynamic system consists of two subsystems or sub models; population subsystem and production subsystem. The interaction between subsystems is visualized by the cause-effect diagram. The early detection method leads to two important issues. Firstly, the system or model is able to visualize the stated rice stock dynamic (ratio of rice normative consumption towards production per capita). Second, ratio of rice normative consumption towards production per capita on each region is factually precise compared to the actual data. These results show that the model could be applied to predict the rice volume if one of the determinant factors has changed.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: early warning system, rice stock, dynamic system
Subjects: L Education > L Education (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Law, Arts and Social Sciences > School of Education
Depositing User: Mr. Repository Admin
Date Deposited: 07 Jun 2016 21:58
Last Modified: 21 Jun 2016 05:58
URI: http://erepo.unud.ac.id/id/eprint/7755

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